glacica

26.03.17

the immediate response was obvious, and maybe deserved. boston fans delighted, torrent fans anything but, and everyone else just kinda confused. so what is there to make of this?

the boston side

the upside here is clear. a contender loading up, grabbing a top performer off another team at a run for the cup. they gave up a reliable role player for someone who has filled in for Knight during her injury and held her own at top line minutes and matchups. the cost is real, but worth while in a pure arms race upgrade. the fleet have been a force this season so doubling down to ride that wave makes sense.

hello? seattle?

i am in a sense countering Ian Kennedy's article, but without the insider access and data, that came out justifying seattle's move after the dust settled a bit. the penalty drawing differential is a strong indicator as he points out, and despite my personal axe to grind against blocked shots, coaches, gm's, and players love it. but i found the framing around production interesting, as he cited metrics that aren't publicly available to back it up. i have no reason not to believe the numbers but naturally im excited to look back on this once i have some more infrastructure built.

"Looking at net xG (expected goals), a mark that takes a player's xG while they're on the ice, and minuses their opponent's xG, Eldridge sits at a -2.10 while Schafzahl sits at a positive 1.78. Comparing possession metrics like Corsi and Fenwick, Schafzahl's metrics are 55% for on both, while Eldridge's numbers are 49% and 51%. Schafzahl also averages significantly more controlled entries per 60 minutes at 6.9 compared to Eldridge's 4.7."

his point about net xG aligns with what would be expected though maybe not as framed. as constructed, Eldridge was intended to play the 2nd line RW for the Torrent but had to step up into harder minutes when Knight went out of comission. she struggled in that role as did the torrent generally this season. this is framed as a point for Schafzahl, who has performed better relatively in her more sheltered role on a winning team. neither of these statements should be taken as detractions toward the players, simply an observation about how being able to play the role youre best suited to can paint a player in a worse light. Schafzhal got to thrive in the bottom lines with smaller set of responsibilities that she could crush. Eldridge was unfortunately put in a difficult position to succeed in and these numbers reflect that disparity in my opinion.

there is also, i think, a real "west coast" factor at play here. its something i want to dive into more cause i have to imagine travel and just settling in took a toll on the expansion teams this year, as they both underperformed what fans expected. but there is also just the life aspect. the pwhl pays for relocation costs for players, but that isn't always enough to make it feel like home. no amount of money can bring your extended family and the familiar comforts with you.

this is framed in Ian's article as a culture issue and i certainly think its affected by it but i also think it could be just as simple as geography. you can draft the best expansion team on paper but its really hard on a personal level to move across the continent. there is less money involved to smoothe over ill feelings and get you to the offseason. women's hockey demographics skew to the east and the development pipeline relies on eastern NCAA programs even more than men's hockey. which means seattle and Vancouver are asking players to move further from home, family, and familiar infrastructure than any eastern team does. for Eldridge, someone from Ontario who always played in the east, i can see how that would be a big adjustment and a factor the western teams need to consider going forward. if reworking the culture to produce more enthusiasm after a disasterous season is the play for seattle it makes total sense to me. i would not be suprised to see schafzhal re-sign with the Torrent; she gains new opportunity to push up the lineup she wouldnt have in boston, seattle slides down the aging curve a little and can probably sneak her through the expansion draft, and everyone knows europeans love the PNW.

the human element to me is a big part of this trade, and may have even motivated seattle to accommodate the move. Eldridge stepped up for them and hung in there in a miserable season. hockey gm's have been known to reward those types of veterans with chance to have a playoff run. so maybe it was the best for everyone

until the expansion draft blows it all up anyway lol